Weekly Observations - 2/10/2025

DEAL REVIEW FROM CLAY ✍️

If you’re considering a private real estate investment and would like a free deal review, please email me your pitch deck and associated docs at [email protected]. My expertise lies in SFR, BTR, and Multifamily. This review will be high-level, and any personal feedback I provide should not be used as a determination in making investment decisions.

CLAY’S RECENT ARTICLES 📰

Rent Growth Assumptions - Organic Rent Growth, Why Do Rents Fall, Resources to Check Rent Growth

HELPFUL NEWS ARTICLES 📜

Key Recent News Articles:

1. Apartment Investment Market Thaws Despite High Interest Rates -

   Despite the impact of high interest rates, the apartment investment market is starting to recover, with a rise in transaction volume and a closer alignment between buyer and seller expectations. Investors are adjusting to the higher rate environment and focusing on opportunities in particular markets and property types. This renewed activity suggests a potential thaw in the market after a slowdown caused by rising interest rates.

2. Texas to Surpass California in Population by 2045, Study Finds - Texas may not be perfect, but there are plenty of reasons to invest here. The state's population is growing rapidly due to its affordability compared to other parts of the country. I’ve invested in two syndications here, and both are performing well thanks to some of these positive trends.

3. Trump Targets Carried Interest in Surprise Tax Reform Push - This is somewhat surprising and crucial information for general partners or investment fund managers to consider.

4. High Rates, High Vacancies: Why Freddie Mac Still Projects Multifamily Loan Origination Growth - Freddie Mac projects multifamily loan origination growth despite high interest rates and vacancies, a seemingly counterintuitive outlook. This projection is rooted in the persistent imbalance between housing supply and demand, with rental demand still exceeding available units in many areas. Demographic trends, such as population growth and household formation, continue to favor rental housing in the long term. Additionally, lender confidence in the long-term viability of multifamily housing, particularly in select markets, also plays a role. These factors, along with potential economic forecasts, help explain Freddie Mac's expectation for continued multifamily loan origination growth.

5. December Jobs: Annual Gains Continue Slowing for Top Metros - This article discusses the slowing employment gains in the top metro areas in the U.S., based on the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In 2024, the total number of jobs gained among the top 10 of RealPage’s 150 markets dropped by 40,600 compared to 2023. While the first eight metro areas on December’s top 10 list remained the same as November, a few saw shifts in ranking. Additionally, 13 of RealPage’s top 150 markets reported annual job losses this year, marking an increase of one from the previous month.
   

   

INTERESTING REAL ESTATE 🏠💼

Twisted Horns Ridge - Hondo, Texas

I'm heading to Twisted Horns with my fiancé this weekend to celebrate Valentine's Day! We're both really looking forward to it, and it's inspired me to write an article about what aspects of design and amenities really draw people to a particular place. In a couple of weeks, I'll share my thoughts on Twisted Horns, diving into its amenities, marketing, and, of course, the true length of the Longhorn's horns 🙂 

Happy Investing!